"I think we've all got to assume that anything can happen in an election this close, because that's the name of the game. That said, I just don't think it's going to be that close & certainly not in the electoral vote. For one thing as you mentioned early voting has been strong for the President in a number of key states. The polling has also favored the president and yet standard polling overwhelmingly undercounts young voters who are a) less likely to have a landline, and b) less likely to answer an unknown call on their cell phone.
Additionally, I'd argue that the voter suppression efforts in places like PA, OH & FL has had a boomerang effect against the GOP. Folks keep talking about a lack of enthusiasm on the DEM side, but I think what they're talking about is the lack of euphoria that accompanied much of the campaign in 08. Then people voted because they were excited - this time people are excited to vote because they're pissed that someone has tried to take the vote away from them.
I had a chance to interview David Axelrod last Nov...and these guys have been all over the voter suppression issue for a strong minute. I'm giving NV, IA, WI, OH, PA & NH to the president. I'm also going out on a limb and giving him VA as well. NC & CO I'm not convinced he wins, and FL could go either way, but from the math I see President Obama wins big."
I think there's a good chance President Obama takes FL as well, given the ongoing demographic shift in that state (eg. the Latino community there is deep and increasingly "non-Cuban"; the young Cuban demo is not as deeply committed to the Castro issue that has galvanized previous generations behind the GOP). Additionally, the Obama campaign has a far superior ground game to the Romney campaign nationwide (particularly in the battle-ground states) and ultimately this numbers game boils down to who shows up to the polls & has their votes counted.
The bottom line is, yes the country is divided but the electoral college will not be. Tomorrow we'll be hearing the news media all abuzz about how the polls were so bad, of course they couldn't tell it wouldn't be close. Except for Nate Silver, who's been doing the math all along.